WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new report from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) offers a mixed view of violent crime trends in the nation’s capital and other U.S. cities. While the frequency of violent incidents appears to be on the decline in D.C., the deadliness of those incidents is on the rise—raising concerns among public safety officials and researchers alike.
Nationwide Trends Point to Decline in Crime
According to the CCJ’s midyear 2024 report, cities across the country are showing steady declines in violent crime, with many jurisdictions seeing rates lower than pre-pandemic levels. This includes reductions in homicides, aggravated assaults, and carjackings.
“The overall takeaway is that homicide and other violent crimes are declining through the first half of this year,” said Ernesto Lopez, senior researcher with CCJ.
“This continues a pattern of falling crime rates that began after spikes in 2020 and 2021.”
Even crimes like motor vehicle thefts, which surged in 2022 and 2023, are now seeing downturns in many regions.
D.C. Violence Less Frequent, But More Lethal
However, Washington, D.C., stands out in one troubling way: while violent crimes may be happening less often, they are far more likely to end in death than they were a decade ago.
Lopez noted that D.C.’s lethality rate—the percentage of violent crimes that result in a homicide—has skyrocketed.
“From 2012 to 2024, the lethality of violence in D.C. has increased by over 300%,” Lopez said.
“So even if violent crime is down, when violence does happen, it’s more likely to end in fatality.”
This alarming trend is echoed in gun-related fatalities, which have seen a 200% increase since 2012, according to the report.
Insights from D.C. Law Enforcement
D.C. police have long warned about the rising lethality of shootings in the city. In remarks to the D.C. Council in early 2024, Police Chief Pamela Smith addressed the grim numbers.
Smith pointed to 274 homicides in 2023, the highest count since 1997. Though shootings were up 9% compared to the previous three-year average, the number of those shootings resulting in death had jumped 22%.
“There would have been 82 fewer homicides in 2023 if the fatality rate of shootings had remained at 2017 levels,” Smith said.
She also highlighted the increasing use of conversion switches—devices that illegally modify handguns from semi-automatic to fully automatic weapons—as a factor contributing to the growing deadliness of gun crimes.
“The number of conversion switches MPD recovered tripled in two years—from 66 in 2021 to 195 in 2023,” Smith said.
“Overall, more than 3,000 firearms were recovered in 2023, mirroring 2022 and marking a 36% increase from 2021.”
The Outlook: Encouraging Yet Concerning
While some data points offer cautious optimism—such as declining carjackings and a plateau in firearm recoveries—the continued elevation of violence-related deaths underscores ongoing public safety challenges.
“That trend in firearm use seems to have flattened out,” Lopez said.
“But it still remains significantly higher than it was in 2012 and even several years ago.”
What Comes Next?
As D.C. works to address violent crime, officials stress the importance of targeted enforcement, community engagement, and legislation aimed at restricting access to deadly weapons and conversion devices.
Residents and local leaders alike are encouraged by the drop in overall violent crime. Still, the city’s rising fatality rate reminds everyone that while crime may be declining in quantity, its quality—its impact—remains deeply troubling.
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