D.C. Study Reveals Drop in Violent Crime but Rise in Deadly Outcomes

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new study from the Council on Criminal Justice, a D.C.-based organization, has revealed a troubling trend: while violent crime is declining overall, the violence that does occur is becoming more lethal.

Fewer Crimes, More Fatal Outcomes

The comprehensive study analyzed data from 2012 to 2024 across 17 major U.S. cities. It found that Washington, D.C. had the highest level of “lethality” — a term used to describe the number of homicides per 1,000 aggravated assaults and robberies.

This means that although the total number of violent crimes has decreased, those that do happen are more likely to result in death, especially due to gun violence. Minor disputes that once might have ended in arguments or non-lethal assaults are now escalating to fatal encounters.

Homicide Slice of the Violence “Pie” Is Growing

Study co-author Ernesto Lopez explains it this way:

“It’s kind of tricky to wrap your head around, but if you think of the overall rate of violence as a pie, and homicide as one slice — that slice has grown over time.”

Homicides in D.C. are increasing at a greater rate than aggravated assaults and robberies. A contributing factor is the growing number of people carrying firearms, which increases the risk that a violent situation will end in a shooting.

Domestic and Crew-Related Violence a Key Concern

D.C. Councilmember Brooke Pinto, who chairs the Council’s Judiciary and Public Safety Committee, responded to the report by highlighting the changing nature of violence in the city. Many of the deadly incidents, she noted, are occurring indoors among people who know one another.

“Our strategies have to be nimble. We have to intervene earlier—during domestic violence incidents or crew-based disputes—before they escalate into shootings,” Pinto stated.

She emphasized that even though crime numbers are trending downward, efforts to combat gun violence must continue aggressively.

Crime Stats in D.C. This Year

According to the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD):

Violent crime is down 6%
Property crime is down 8%
Car thefts remain steady, on pace with last year’s numbers

Notably, homicides, assaults with dangerous weapons, and robberies are all down, reflecting overall improvement in public safety. However, the increased deadliness of individual incidents suggests that new, targeted intervention strategies are urgently needed.

What’s Next?

This study urges city leaders, law enforcement, and community organizations to focus not just on reducing crime volume, but on reducing crime severity. Preventing violence from escalating — particularly in personal or domestic situations — is seen as a critical next step.

As Pinto concluded:

“Our work cannot stop, even though we see the positive trends. We have to stay focused, so everyone can be safe.”

The report is a sobering reminder: while fewer violent crimes are happening, the cost in lives is rising, demanding a more proactive, preventative approach to public safety in the District.