Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has sounded a note of caution regarding the current behavior of American consumers and businesses, pointing to increasing uncertainty linked to President Donald Trump’s ongoing economic policies. Speaking on national television and through recent industry events, Moynihan highlighted that while spending remains stable, many Americans and businesses are adopting a “wait and see” attitude in the evolving policy climate.
Consumers Pull Back as Policy Winds Shift
During a recent high-profile interview, Moynihan noted a perceptible slowdown in both consumer and business activity. “Consumers are more cautious, really waiting for some answers as the new policies take shape,” Moynihan stated, alluding to a climate of heightened uncertainty as President Trump’s administration pursues policies involving trade tariffs, tax reforms, deregulation, and changes to immigration.
Moynihan explained that the lack of clarity on regulatory issues—combined with the anticipation of new tax and trade decisions—has led many individuals and companies to be careful with major economic decisions. “Businesses in the heartland still lack clarity, which keeps them from using their credit lines and limits hiring and investment,” he shared. The data, according to Moynihan, shows that the “slowdown in activity is largely due to uncertainty rather than a lack of options.”
The New Economic Reality: Robust but Cautious
Despite more subdued consumer sentiment in recent polls, Americans continue to spend steadily, although spending habits have shifted. Individuals are becoming choosier, increasingly prioritizing essential services over discretionary goods. “The economy is more resilient than many think, but people are vocal about their concerns due to rising prices and future uncertainty,” Moynihan stressed.
Even so, economic growth forecasted by Bank of America suggests a modest pace—around 1.5% for this year, inching slightly higher next year. Inflation, boosted in part by Trump’s renewed tariff strategies, is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until at least 2026. “Tariffs could add roughly 30 to 40 basis points to inflation, and those costs are being felt by consumers,” Moynihan said.
Cautious Optimism for the Road Ahead
Addressing fears that Trump’s policies could spark a recession, Moynihan remains pragmatic. “Our economists do not foresee an imminent recession nor drastic changes to interest rates in the near term,” he explained. Expectations are for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates until inflation is more convincingly contained, possibly lowering them next year as the economy stabilizes.
But with job growth faltering and new uncertainty pressing on the horizon—especially related to artificial intelligence and changing job markets—Bank of America’s data points to a period of consolidation rather than rapid expansion. “We see businesses and individuals waiting for certainty before making big moves,” emphasized Moynihan.
Political Tensions and Public Perceptions
This environment of caution is not helped by political skirmishes and public discourse. Trump has repeatedly criticized Bank of America and other major banks for perceived bias against conservative customers, calling on Moynihan publicly to “open your bank to conservatives.” Throughout, Moynihan has largely kept to a strategy of calm professionalism, reiterating that the bank serves 70 million consumers across all political stripes and sectors, including firearms, energy, and tobacco.
He maintains that decisions are based on risk and business needs. “We always make decisions on what is best for our company and clients. Our process is transparent and our policies are clear,” Moynihan said, deflecting the political jabs with a focus on the bank’s core values and results.
Investment Banking Takes a Hit
Moynihan recently revealed that, as a direct result of policy uncertainties and market jitters, Bank of America expects investment-banking revenues to drop by as much as 25% this quarter compared to last year. “Policy announcements coming out of the administration are causing dealmakers to hit pause, and that’s rippling through the investment-banking segment,” he explained.
Navigating Toward Stability
Above all, Moynihan’s message is unmistakable: “Clarity on regulatory and economic policies is what America’s consumers and businesses need most.” He called for the administration to prioritize budget stability and responsible fiscal management, underlining the importance of resolving doubts and providing clearer policy signals for America’s economic engines to rev up once again.
As both Main Street shoppers and Wall Street dealmakers hold their breath, the call from the head of one of America’s largest financial institutions is clear: it’s time for Washington to deliver answers and restore confidence. Until then, expect American consumers—and the broader economy—to tread cautiously.
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